2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Closer Look at the Updated Forecast and Its Implications

Introduction to the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team released their updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season, which began on June 1 and continues through November 30. The team adjusted their original forecast, which predicted a slightly below-average season, and now call for an average season.

Detailed Forecast and Its Implications

The new estimate calls for about 6 hurricanes (average is 6.4), 14 named storms (average is 12.1), 55 named storm days (average is 59.4), 20 hurricane days (average is 24.2), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.7), and 5 major hurricane days (average is 6.2). These numbers include Subtropical Storm Andrea, which formed in May. Dr. Klotzbach noted that there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño conditions will persist through the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic has warmed slightly faster than normal over the past few weeks and now has near-average sea surface temperatures. He anticipates a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

Preparing for the Hurricane Season

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the average number of hurricanes per season from 1981 to 2010 was 6.4, with 2.7 of those being major hurricanes. This data shows that the 2019 forecast is indeed close to the historical average. For those living in hurricane-prone areas, it's crucial to have a plan in place, including having an emergency kit ready, knowing evacuation routes, and staying informed about weather updates.