2020 Hurricane Forecast: An Extremely Active Season Predicted

An Extremely Active Hurricane Season Expected

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be 'extremely active,' according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a non-resident scholar at Triple-I and an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU). Dr. Klotzbach and his team issued an updated forecast on August 5, projecting 24 named storms (up from 20 in the previous forecast), 12 hurricanes (up from nine), and five major hurricanes (up from four). This forecast includes the storms that have already formed, with an average season having 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Reduced Vertical Wind Shear Drives Activity

The activity is driven in part by reduced vertical wind shear. Strong wind shear tears apart hurricanes. Observed wind shear has been very low in July, which means it's also expected to be low at the peak of the season from August to October. This reduced wind shear, combined with other factors, contributes to the heightened activity predicted for the 2020 season.

Elevated Probabilities of U.S. Hurricane Landfalls

The probabilities of U.S. hurricane landfalls are also elevated simply because we are expecting more Atlantic storms. The U.S. has already experienced two landfalls this season with Hanna and Isaias. People in hurricane-prone areas are advised to have a plan in place and follow the directions of local emergency managers if storms threaten.