Revisiting Pre-Pandemic Driving Levels: Insights from Gas Consumption Data

Gasoline Consumption as a Proxy for Driving Activity

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides valuable insights into the petroleum industry, including weekly data on gasoline supplies. While not a perfect measure, gasoline supplied to retailers closely mirrors actual consumption, which in turn correlates with miles driven. This data offers a timely indicator of driving trends, often preceding collision data.

Pandemic Impact on Gas Consumption

The onset of the pandemic and subsequent recession led to a significant reduction in driving. Auto insurers responded by offering premium refunds. Comparing gasoline supplies in 2020 to 2019, we see a marked decline from March onwards. However, as restrictions eased in May, gas consumption began to rebound, nearing pre-pandemic levels.

Factors Influencing the Rebound

Several factors may have contributed to the increase in gas consumption: states relaxing lockdowns, a shift from public to private transportation due to health concerns, warmer weather encouraging more travel, and historically low gas prices. For instance, a report by the American Automobile Association (AAA) noted a 55% increase in road trips during the summer of 2020 compared to the previous year.

For readers, it's crucial to stay informed about such trends, especially if you're in the insurance or automotive industries. Monitoring gas consumption can provide early signals about economic recovery and consumer behavior shifts.