Ana: The Early Bird of 2021 Hurricane Season

Ana's Early Arrival

Subtropical Storm Ana formed early on May 22, northeast of Bermuda, becoming the first named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This marks the seventh consecutive year in which at least one named storm has formed prior to the start of Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins June 1. Over the past six years, there have been eight preseason named storms, four of which made landfall in the U.S. In 2020, two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—formed in May.

Ana's Evolution and Dissipation

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Ana to a tropical storm on the morning of May 23 but it was quickly downgraded to a tropical depression by afternoon. Ana weakened into a post-tropical cyclone and was expected to dissipate on May 24 as it tracked northeastward into colder Atlantic waters. This rapid evolution and dissipation of Ana is not uncommon for early season storms, which often lack the sustained energy and organization of later season storms.

Implications for the 2021 Hurricane Season

The early formation of Ana, along with the trend of preseason storms, suggests that the 2021 hurricane season could be active. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This prediction is based on a combination of factors, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and the ongoing La Niña phenomenon. For residents in hurricane-prone areas, now is the time to review and update emergency plans and ensure that insurance policies are up-to-date.