How COVID-19 is Impacting Weather Forecasting Accuracy

The Role of Aircraft Data in Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting models heavily rely on data collected by aircraft. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reported a 42% decline in aircraft reports worldwide from March 1 to 23. Over Europe, the number of aircraft reports fell by 65% in less than a month. A 2017 American Meteorological Society study found that using aircraft observations reduced six-hour forecast errors in wind, humidity, and temperature by 15% to 30% across the United States.

Impact on Forecast Accuracy

The accuracy of weather forecasts is crucial for preparation and decision-making. Less accurate forecasts can lead to inadequate preparation and poor weather-related decisions, potentially resulting in larger insurance claims and losses. Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, noted that the removal of all aircraft data could reduce prediction ability at upper levels in the atmosphere by around 10-15% for 12-hour predictions. Surface pressure errors increased by about 3% when aircraft-provided information was subtracted from historical model forecasts.

Mitigation and Future Outlook

Despite the reduction in aircraft data, some aircraft will still be flying, and other data sources, such as additional launches of weather balloons, may mitigate some of the loss. The impact of the lack of aircraft data is greater on shorter-term forecasts (e.g., <1 day) than on longer-term forecasts (e.g., 5-7 days). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the reliability of weather forecasting isn’t yet at the top of the list of concerns, but it remains an important factor in daily life and business operations.

For readers, it's important to stay informed about weather forecasts and be prepared for potential changes in accuracy. Keeping an eye on multiple sources of weather information can help mitigate the impact of reduced aircraft data on forecasting models.