The Decline in U.S. Wildfire Severity and Frequency: A Surprising Trend Amidst High-Profile Events

A Surprising Trend: Decreasing Wildfire Frequency and Severity

Despite the high-profile wildfires that have made headlines in recent years, the frequency and severity of wildfires in the U.S. are on track to be the lowest in the past two decades. This trend has generally been downward since 2000, according to a recently published Triple-I Issues Brief. This is a surprising revelation given the catastrophic losses in states like Washington, Hawaii, Louisiana, and California.

Investments in Mitigation: A Key Factor in the Decline

The improvements in wildfire frequency and severity are likely due to significant investments in mitigation. State and local authorities have invested heavily to mitigate the human causes of wildfire. The federal Infrastructure and Jobs Act of 2021 included billions to support wildfire-risk reduction, homeowner investment in mitigation, and improved responsiveness to fires. The Biden Administration's recent announcement of $185 million for wildfire mitigation and resilience as part of the Investing in America Agenda should help continue these declines.

The Role of Population Trends and Insured Losses

Swiss Re reports that wildfire's share of insured natural catastrophe losses has doubled over the past 30 years. This can be partly explained by population trends, specifically the growing number of people choosing to live in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). According to the U.S. Fire Administration, nearly 99 million people, or one third of the U.S. population, live in the WUI, putting more than 46 million homes with an estimated value of $1.3 trillion at risk. The 2022 Annual Report of Wildfires by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) shows that 89 percent of wildfires were caused by human activity, burning 55 acres per fire, compared to 11 percent caused by lightning, which burned an average of 563 acres.

For readers, it's crucial to stay informed about wildfire risks and mitigation efforts. Homeowners in the WUI should consider investing in fire-resistant materials and creating defensible space around their properties. Staying updated with local fire safety guidelines and participating in community preparedness programs can also significantly reduce the risk of wildfire damage.